Three Key Factors to Note in Horse Racing Handicapping For Consistently Picking Winners

The way that you progress as a horse racing handicapper is by keeping good accurate notes that you can refer to when you want to check your progress and avoid making the same mistakes. But keeping notes is not that simple for some people and being organized in your thinking is an absolute must when picking winners.

First you must identify key handicapping factors that you want to follow. If you want to become a master at using speed figures to pick winners, then you must keep track of the speed figures that you used to make decisions about bets. If you want to use pace as a handicapping figure that you use to rate the competitors, then you must note how you thought a race would shape up and then you must watch the race and see how closely you were able to call the position of each horse during the race.

Here is what you are actually trying to accomplish when you are using your own notes to become a better handicapper.

1. Learn how each horse's projected figure, whether pace, speed, class, will affect its ability to compete.

2. Learn how important the spread is when comparing those figures in each class of race.

3. Learn how to exploit the differences and the crowd's opinion of those factors to find good value bets.

Here is what each of those points really means.

1. Once you decide which factor(s) you want to rate, the next job is to write them down for each race you handicap. Then, watch the race and note how each horse performed. After a while you may start to notice a pattern. You will also start to have a valid opinion based on watching numerous races with horses that showed that figure. For instance, let's saying you are watching claiming races for older horses at 6 furlongs at your favorite track. You start to notice that a horse with a superior early pace figure is usually within a few lengths of the leader or wins the race. Now, each time you see a horse like that, you know it must be considered a contender or an exotic play.

2. If you are following the three major factors, speed, class, pace, and notice that one is not really much of a determining factor, that is important, especially when we get to part three. During the second phase you are trying to determine how important a 3 tick advantage is in early speed or if horse's dropping from 15k claimers to 10k claimers have a big advantage. In other words, you are seeing how much weight the spreads have and therefore how much each one should be used in your calculations.

3. This is where your note keeping should pay off. You have watched the factors you wanted to become expert at and have a good collection of notes. You have determines, for instance, that speed is only a good determining factor if a horse has at least a 5 point advantage in speed figures in its last three races. Yet you notice the crowd is betting a horse with only a 2 point advantage down to even money. You look at the other contenders and find a horse with good early speed and know that the advantage it has in early speed will make it competitive at the end and it is at 5-1 odds. You know from past experience that it is a good bet so you play it.

The reason the crowd didn't know it is because most don't keep notes and don't understand how important the spread is in important handicapping figures. If you took a poll of the crowd they'd tell you the horse was the favorite because it had the best speed figure and that's important. But you know from your notes, that while speed is important, it doesn't matter much unless there is at least a 5 point spread. The crowd over estimates the horses advantage. That is how you find good value bets among the other contenders.

You won't find a bet in every race this way and it will take work to do this. You have to keep well written notes and state why you liked a horse in a race and then see what happens and write that down. Then watch the race and look at your opinions at the end of the race to see how well they held up. That is how you will learn and that is how you will have an advantage over the crowd. The notes are feedback and without feedback you won't improve.

You will find that most people learn almost everything they know about handicapping in the first 10 trips to the race track. After that they go over and over again and make the same mistakes over and over again and never progress beyond that point because they didn't keep notes and have a hazy recollection of what works and why. Most people, truth be told, are just trying to get lucky at the horse races and everyone can't be lucky. For the 9 out of 10 days when you're not lucky, you better be good. Picking winners for profit takes skill and good horse racing handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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Use Sight Handicapping To Spot More Winners While Horse Racing Handicapping

Very few people who are serious about making a profit at horse racing handicapping bet on a race without first consulting the past performances or forms. It is almost impossible for most of us to pick winners without looking at past performances. Horseracing handicapping is a difficult task and is based on what happened in the past to predict the future.

We look at the past to predict the future but we make our bets in the present and that is when the races are run, in the present. It is, therefore, a big mistake to ignore what is right in front of you, what is happening in the here and now. But go to any race track or OTB parlor and you will find men and women poring over a form or past performances and totally ignoring the horses in the post parade or saddling ring.

Recently I had two experiences that reinforced my belief that you should never make a bet without looking at the horse you are betting on. Both of the races were at Tampa Bay Downs and both were maiden races. In one of the races the favorite looked great on paper. It seemed to be a horse that laid over the field. It was going off at 4 to 5. I didn't want to bet on it but certainly didn't want to bet against it. I decided that this was a race to watch but not to bet on.

The horses were parading by when I noticed the favorite was all washed out. Sweat was pouring off the horse. The lather on the horse and its agitated state made me realize that it wasn't going to win. Though it may have been able to flash some good early speed there would be no gas left in the tank at the end of the race because the sweat that was pouring out of it was the equivalent of energy. I looked through the likely contenders and chose one that not only looked good on paper but also presented well in the post parade.

I wound up in the short line cashing my ticket while a stunned crowd threw away their losing tickets. The answer was right in front of them, but many failed to see it. A little sight handicapping would have saved their losses, but many either didn't know a few simple truths about horses or just plain failed to look.

In the second instance the truth was a little less obvious. I noticed the favorite in a maiden race was what we call "hikey." This is a slang term that means that as the horse walked there was a little jump or catch in its step that indicated some soreness. Soreness doesn't always keep a horse from winning a race. I once owned a trotter named Bomb Strike who had a stifle problem. She would look lame in the post parade and more than once the stewards called her back to the paddock before a race to check her out. Usually, on the way back to the paddock, the soreness would work its way out and she would perform well.

She just needed some good warm-up time to work the stiffness and soreness out. I rested her between races and even had a massage therapist work on her to help her with the problem.

But I realized that since the maiden I was looking at was bet below even odds it was a good opportunity to bet on another likely contender. Once again, the favorite failed to satisfy the crowd and I wound up in short line cashing a ticket.

The lesson to be learned from all this is that conditions and a horse's health can change on a daily basis. The owner's of the horses probably knew their horses weren't going to win and took advantage of that inside information. Even if you didn't know how to see the problem with the horses, using a good tote board method like the one in True Handicapping would have alerted you that something was wrong.

Whether sight handicapping the horses or watching the tote board, the evidence of what was taking place in front of you could have saved you from betting on those losers. But to do that you would have had to forget the past and tune into the present. Learning a few simple ways to spot a problem with a horse, or a healthy horse that is fit and ready to win, or important keys on the tote board are all good ways to spot more winners while horseracing handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Ideas

Horse Racing Handicapping - 3 Ways to Choose a Winner

Betting in a horse race is all about picking the horse with the best chances of winning and horse racing handicapping is the best way to do this. This is an opinion endorsed by experts over the years.

A lot of theories regarding horse racing handicapping have been developed recently and these theories or angles as they are called, are proving to be very helpful to those who are serious about their betting.

1. Speed Figures Handicapping

The most popular angle in horse racing handicapping, this theory requires the handicapper to look for the figures that denote the speed at which each horse has run in the previous races. These figures are available in the Daily Racing Forms, but the internet, with its plethora of articles and analytical discussions provide the best information. The horse with the best timings normally wins a race. This angle has its drawbacks. The fact that the information is so easily available renders it ineffective to some extent. The easy accessibility of the speed figures enables everyone and anyone to use them in picking the winner, thereby diminishing the individual winnings. But in spite of that, this is an effective angle and most handicappers use it.

2. Trainer Handicapping

This is another very popular and effective angle in horse racing handicapping. It is popularly accepted that the trainer has the ability to extract the best performance from a racehorse. Researchers have realized that horses trained by certain trainers come up winners more frequently than other horses. There are some trainers who have the knack of even converting a horse considered to be a poor bet into a winner by improving its performance. Finding out how a horse, at the beginning of its career is taken to the winning post by a trainer, or how a trainer makes a winner out of a horse which has recently come to him, will be advantageous to a handicapper. Information about the performances of trainers is also readily available and that limits the financial gains from this angle.

3. Pace Handicapping

Pace handicapping is a system where the handicapper selects a winner based on the speeds of a horse in individual stretches of a race. This theory advocates the idea that a horse that runs the early stretches fast and gains a lead at the beginning of a race, is more likely to become the winner. If a horse had run past races at very fast speeds even though it had lost the race, it had better than even chances of winning the present race. This is what this angle suggests. This theory too has its drawbacks. An account of the performances of a certain horse regarding its pace may not have considered other aspects like track and weather conditions. Each horse has its own individual abilities and handicaps making it difficult to compare horses based only on their speeds.

These and a few other horse racing handicapping angles, like Class Handicapping and Physicality Handicapping are arguably the best methods to select a winner in a horse race.

Horse Racing Handicapping

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Horse Racing Handicapping Using Paths and Speed Points

Here is an interesting angle to consider in your horse racing handicapping that you may have never thought of before. In harness racing, especially on half mile tracks, when a horse is denied the rail and forced to race in the two path or "second over," it has to race much farther than the horses running on the rail and it usually means the race is lost for that one.

Thoroughbreds also race in different paths and that can mean the difference between winning and losing. Some services provide information on track biases and where the first three finishers of most races run, in other words whether they are on the rail, in the second path, or third path, etc. While being outside of the rail path means less in thoroughbred racing, it is still important, more so in some races at certain distances and at certain tracks.

First it is a good idea to know where most runners score from at each distance at the track(s) you usually play. Once you know that information, the next thing is to try to determine where each horse in a race will run. For instance, in a long race that starts near the turn, many times the outside post positions rarely win because horses get hung out wide going into the turn. Only horses that start incredibly slowly and therefore wind up easily slipping over to the rail behind the pack, or horses with blinding early speed that shoot over to the rail ahead of the pack, have a chance of getting on the rail path, which we all know is the shortest distance to the winners circle.

But how do you know which part of the track your horse will run on? How do you know which path it will be able to get to and score from? The answer is, no one knows for sure and it is hard to calculate, but not impossible to have a rough idea. The most important part is, when you're trying to pick winners at the horse track, finding a horse that may run into traffic problems during the race and avoiding that scenario can greatly improve your horse racing handicapping.

The way to do that is to read each horse's speed points and fractional times and try to determine where each runner will be at each stage of the race. For instance, if there are three horses who figure to run right behind the leader, and you like the horse with the outside post position of the three, then you can probably figure the other two horses will be between your horse and the rail. In other words, it will run from the three path.

That isn't so bad as long as there will only be two horses in front of it, but if you like a horse but figure it will be kept off the rail and have to contend with a wall of horses in front of it, then you are depending upon some racing luck and the jockey finding an opening as they turn into the stretch. Many times, these runners encounter problems and wind up finishing in the money but missing the win. The larger the field the more tactical speed becomes important.

Try handicapping a few races and figuring which path each horse will be in and which ones will encounter problems or have to take up in the stretch or turn and you may be amazed at how good you are at spotting trouble and avoiding those bets. Avoid a few bad bets a day and you will find you are soon making a profit from the horse races.

Here is an interesting angle to consider in your horse racing handicapping that you may have never thought of before. In harness racing, especially on half mile tracks, when a horse is denied the rail and forced to race in the two path or "second over," it has to race much farther than the horses running on the rail and it usually means the race is lost for that one.

Thoroughbreds also race in different paths and that can mean the difference between winning and losing. Some services provide information on track biases and where the first three finishers of most races run, in other words whether they are on the rail, in the second path, or third path, etc. While being outside of the rail path means less in thoroughbred racing, it is still important, more so in some races at certain distances and at certain tracks.

First it is a good idea to know where most runners score from at each distance at the track(s) you usually play. Once you know that information, the next thing is to try to determine where each horse in a race will run. For instance, in a long race that starts near the turn, many times the outside post positions rarely win because horses get hung out wide going into the turn. Only horses that start incredibly slowly and therefore wind up easily slipping over to the rail behind the pack, or horses with blinding early speed that shoot over to the rail ahead of the pack, have a chance of getting on the rail path, which we all know is the shortest distance to the winners circle.

But how do you know which part of the track your horse will run on? How do you know which path it will be able to get to and score from? The answer is, no one knows for sure and it is hard to calculate, but not impossible to have a rough idea. The most important part is, when you're trying to pick winners at the horse track, finding a horse that may run into traffic problems during the race and avoiding that scenario can greatly improve your horse racing handicapping.

The way to do that is to read each horse's speed points and fractional times and try to determine where each runner will be at each stage of the race. For instance, if there are three horses who figure to run right behind the leader, and you like the horse with the outside post position of the three, then you can probably figure the other two horses will be between your horse and the rail. In other words, it will run from the three path.

That isn't so bad as long as there will only be two horses in front of it, but if you like a horse and figure it will be kept off the rail and have to contend with a wall of horses in front of it, then you are depending upon some racing luck and the jockey finding an opening as they turn into the stretch. Many times, these runners encounter problems and wind up finishing in the money but missing the win. The larger the field the more tactical speed becomes important.

Try handicapping a few races and figuring which path each horse will be in and which ones will encounter problems or have to take up in the stretch or turn and you may be amazed at how good you are at spotting trouble and avoiding those bets. Avoid a few bad bets a day and you will find you are soon making a profit from the horse races.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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